Jimi Agbaje
News Analysis
Eddy Odivwri
Nigerians, in 29 out of the 36 states of the federation, will file out tomorrow to elect those who will govern them for the next four years, as well as those who will represent them in all the 36 state Houses of Assembly.
Nigerians, in 29 out of the 36 states of the federation, will file out tomorrow to elect those who will govern them for the next four years, as well as those who will represent them in all the 36 state Houses of Assembly.
The polls tomorrow will round off the 2015 general election, which started with the presidential and National Assembly elections on March 28. Governorship elections will not hold in seven states, as the tenure of the governors serving in such states is yet to expire.
However, the contest that is certain to generate the most interest is the governorship race in Nigeria’s commercial capital, Lagos, where Akinwunmi Ambode, the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), will be slugging it out with Jimi Agbaje, the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
That the race in Lagos will be keenly watched is not surprising. The state, after all, as the only city-state in the country, is a microcosm of Nigeria, in which all ethnic groups and religions are represented. Indeed, it is commonly acknowledged that the non-indigenes population in Lagos, including the Yoruba from neighbouring states, by far outstrips the core indigenous population of the state (sometimes known as sons of the soil) by a ratio of eight to two.
Being the traditional base of the former Lagos State Governor, Bola Tinubu, the APC, a few weeks ago, was expected to sweep the state in the governorship poll. Tinubu, for 16 years, has held sway in the state like an unmovable colossus. He did and undid and determined who got what in the state, and used it as his launch pad and bargaining chip when he respectively recovered other South-west states from the PDP and negotiated the merger process that led to the emergence of the APC.
But the marginal victory recorded by the APC over the PDP in the presidential election, coupled with four key factors, has wiped out that certainty and placed Lagos squarely in the battleground zone where the contest is too close to call.
The first of the factors likely to count against Tinubu and in turn determine the outcome of the poll is the APC-for-Agbaje group, comprising malcontents of the APC, who want to see the back of Tinubu. For years, they have silently borne the brunt of his vice-like grip on the state, and have been forced to watch helplessly as their political aspirations were truncated by his autocratic dominance.
Just like several northern PDP governors who silently worked against President Goodluck Jonathan before the presidential contest, the APC-for-Agbaje dissidents have ganged up against Tinubu, hoping to do maximum damage to his goal of installing Ambode as the next governor of Lagos.
A second factor is the voter apathy among the Hausa community in the governorship race in the state now that Major-General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd), for whom they all trooped out en masse during the presidential poll, has won the big prize. It was for this reason Buhari was brought back to Lagos to campaign for Ambode on Tuesday, hoping that the bandwagon effect of his victory will galvanise his tribesmen in Lagos to the polling units in the state.
In recognition of the sizeable bloc votes APC got from the Hausa community during the presidential election, Tinubu, it was gathered, has been running the gamut TO RAISE MONEY from the likes of former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, in order to mobilise voters of northern extraction, among others, to vote for his candidate.
Speaking of the non-indigenous population in Lagos, another group with a considerable voting bloc that is keeping Tinubu awake, is the Igbo community in the state. Arguably, the second largest ethnic group after the Yoruba in the state, the Igbos along with many other Lagosians are unlikely to smile favourably on Ambode, following the unguarded remarks by the Oba of Lagos, Rilwan Akiolu.
A fourth factor is the desire for change among many Lagosians. In an ironic twist, both parties – PDP and APC – have switched their campaign mantras – Change and Continuity – for the governorship and state assembly polls. Whereas APC’s clarion call before the presidential election was “Change”, PDP’s was “Continuity”. For the Lagos contest, APC has now switched to “Continuity” while PDP is pushing for “Change”.
The desire for change among some Lagosians is understandable. After 16 years of what they perceive as Tinubu’s one-man rule in Lagos, this has led to disenchantment. Even the poster boy of the APC, Babatunde Fashola, the Lagos State governor, may not be able to convince them to vote for the candidate of his party.
In other states where the governorship election will hold, the outcome of the presidential and National Assembly elections will definitely alter the political configuration in some states in such a way that some parties which were hitherto not as strong and dominant, have suddenly gained strength and relevance. The new and emerging strength of the political parties is likely to determine how the electorate will vote tomorrow.
As it is with Nigerian politicians who always want to belong to the winning side, the APC, on whose platform Buhari was elected, has been receiving a swathe of defectors from other political parties, especially the rival PDP, which has just lost power at the centre. It is the bandwagon effect created by the outcome of the presidential election that is generating what is now being referred to as “Hurricane Buhari”.
In the last one week, there have been massive decampments into the APC by prized politicians who used to be in the ruling PDP. Mass defections have been witnessed in most states in the North-west and North-east including Benue and Niger in the North-central zone, and also some states in the South-west.
The defection of persons like Chief Olusola Oke, who had served as National Legal Adviser to the PDP as well as Senator Gbenga Ogunniya are some of the top-notch PDP chieftains who jettisoned the ruling party for the APC. Even in Edo State, the former PDP governor, Prof. Osaretin Osunbor, and the governorship candidate in the state, Major-General Charles Airhiavbere also decamped to the APC.
It is remarkable that the spate of defections to the APC has not been recorded in the South-east and parts of the South-south—two blocs, save for Edo State, which have resolved to remain with the PDP. That may therefore mean that the pattern of voting seen in the presidential election, where the PDP won all South-eastern and South-south states would most likely be repeated.
Another factor that would determine the voting pattern tomorrow may well be the local politics of the various states. The rally against the candidature of President Goodluck Jonathan, who was seen as the common enemy by most northern states, is likely to give way to a more careful assessment of the issues and personalities involved in the gubernatorial contests.
In Gombe State, for instance, the impressive performance of Governor Ibrahim Hassan Dankwambo, a PDP governor, could save his re-election bid, even though the APC swept the state during the presidential election. The peculiarity of some local issues is therefore expected to determine how the elections will pan out in some states, while in others like Kaduna, Kebbi, Adamawa and Katsina, the Buhari effect will prevail, paving the path for APC to seize them from the grasp of the PDP.
However, there are some states where it is uncertain what the elections will throw up, as the two dominant parties are almost evenly matched and running neck and neck. Like Lagos, other battleground states such as Niger, Nasarawa, Rivers, Imo, and in another context, Ekiti, Edo – in the House of Assembly elections – are likely to have keen contests.
In Rivers State, there will be a fierce contest for the control of the state between the APC led by Governor Rotimi Amaechi and the PDP led by the First Lady, Mrs. Patience Jonathan. Although the PDP had won the presidential election by a very wide margin, the APC alleged that the presidential election was anything but free and fair, insisting that the results were whimsically written in several places, with the active connivance of security agencies and the state’s Resident Electoral Commissioner (REC), Mrs. Gesila Khan.
Having lost all the National Assembly seats, tomorrow’s election will be the chance left for the APC in Rivers to redeem its claim to popularity, just as the PDP will be determined to re-enact the March 28 feat in the state. Steeped in violence, the outcome of the election in Rivers remains unpredictable.
In Imo State, although the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) governorship candidate, Captain Emmanuel Iheanacho, has waxed rather strong in recent weeks, many still believe the poll will be a straight fight between the incumbent governor, Rochas Okorocha, of the APC and the Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, Hon Emeka Ihedioha, running on the platform of the PDP.
The local politics of wanting to shift the governorship seat away from Okorocha’s Orlu zone, as well as the resolve of the South-east to remain with the PDP, may spring a surprise in the state.
In Ekiti State, although there will be no governorship election, it will still be a battleground for the state House of Assembly elections, as the PDP and the re-invigorated APC will square up in a keen contest. Already, the face off between the state governor, Ayodele Fayose and the APC-dominated House of Assembly, is an indicator that the contest for the 26 seats in the House of Assembly will be keenly contested.